Packers 23, Seahawks 17
The Packers’ fortunes could swing depending on how they do in these key matchups
1. The Cover 2 pass defense
The last time these teams met, Packers defensive coordinator Bob Slowik switched to a Cover 2 zone defense that held the Vikings’ offense to only three points in the second half. The biggest question for today’s game is whether that will work again, after the Vikings have had a week to prepare for it. Cover 2 is the best way to derail receiver Randy Moss, because it provides a safety as help over the top, allowing cornerback Al Harris to concentrate on covering Moss on underneath routes. The Packers played it well against the Vikings, but earlier this season at Philadelphia they blew numerous assignments using a similar scheme and suffered a blowout loss. Cover 2 will put pressure on rookie cornerback Ahmad Carroll to be assignment-sure in zone coverage, which has been the weakest part of his game. The Vikings have a good No. 2 receiver in Nate Burleson, who has 13 receptions for 251 yards in two games against the Packers this season, but keeping Moss out of the end zone remains the best way to slow down the Vikings. The chess game is on between Slowik and Vikings offensive coordinator Scott Linehan.
2. Proper motivation
Good luck predicting how each team’s collective psyche will affect its play. Conventional wisdom says the Packers are ascending after winning two straight, including taking the NFC North Division title from the Vikings — in Minneapolis no less — two weeks ago. The same take says Vikings are falling apart after collapsing for the second straight season with a 3-7 finish and backing into the playoffs after losing at Washington last week. But who knows what difference that makes today? Minnesota isn’t burdened with expectations and is playing a team it knows well and despises. Maybe this is just the matchup the Vikings need to be loose and excited. On the other hand, maybe they’re emotionally spent and ready to fade away. The Packers’ performance the last two weeks suggests they won’t lay an egg, as they did in losses to Tennessee and Jacksonville at Lambeau Field earlier this season, but it doesn’t mean they’ll play well.
3. Weathering the weather
The Vikings are catching a break because the weather at Lambeau Field will be mild for this time of year. It’s expected to be 30 at kickoff, under mostly cloudy skies, with a wind chill of about 22. There’s a 30 percent chance of snow showers during the game. So unless the winds unexpectedly turn wicked (the forecast is light south-southwest winds at about 9 mph) or the snow is unexpectedly heavy, this should be a decent day for the passing game. Still, the Packers should have an edge. Quarterback Brett Favre is 38-2 at home when the game-time temperature is 34 or colder. Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper is 0-4 anywhere outdoors when the temperature is below 45. The Vikings have won only two of their last 22 games played outdoors.
4. The Vikings can run, too
Minnesota has the weapons to run the ball as well as throw it. If the Vikings move it on the ground, they can force the Packers out of the Cover 2 pass defense. Minnesota ranks only 18th in rushing yards per game but is second at 4.7 yards per carry, a rating that isn’t inflated by Culpepper’s scrambling — his 4.6-yard average is lower than the team’s. Michael Bennett, who had 92 yards rushing in the last meeting. is expected to start. Along with Onterrio Smith and Mewelde Moore, the Vikings have excellent depth. Surprisingly, Minnesota hasn’t had a 100-yard rusher since Moore ran for 138 in Week 6. The key to the Packers’ run defense is nose tackle Grady Jackson. But he’ll face Minnesota’s best offensive lineman, center Matt Birk, in a duel that’s as important as any matchup in this game. If the Packers have to regularly bring a safety up to stop the run, they could have major problems covering Moss and Burleson.
5. As Favre goes, so go the Packers
The Packers’ ace in the hole, as always, is Favre. When he’s on top of his game, they can beat anyone, anywhere. He’s more than capable of stringing together excellent performances. If he plays it too safe, the Packers lose his playmaking. It’s no surprise that the Packers are 7-0 in playoff games when Favre hasn’t thrown an interception and 4-8 when he’s thrown at least one. This game probably will be a shootout, so the Packers need him to go toe-to-toe with Culpepper, who’s one of the best young quarterbacks in the game.
— Pete Dougherty, PackersNews.com
