Columnist Jeff Haney: Why some people in the gaming industry don't like playing favorites
LAS VEGAS SUN
Don't tell veteran bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro that this season has been christened the "year of the favorite" in NFL betting.
Or
that a gambler who bet every NFL favorite would have a record of 95-69
against the point spread (58 percent), good enough to turn a robust
profit.
Or that NFL favorites are 126-42 straight-up, regardless
of the point spread. (A typical result would be more like 112-56,
according to the sharp oddsmakers at offshore book Pinnacle Sports.)
Or
even that the favorites' big run has some bookies speculating about a
fundamental change in the nature of sports betting, a revolution
sparked by the Internet and tech-savvy computer wizards.
Nah,
Vaccaro doesn't want to hear it. He has been in the business too long,
on both sides of the counter, to fret much about the results from
two-thirds of a single season.
"They're making me dizzy with all
that stuff," said Vaccaro, now a spokesman for Leroy's sports books. "I
mean, what are you gonna do, tell people they can't bet favorites? Come
on."
If you're a bookmaker, "you keep writing the tickets, keep taking their money and you'll end up just fine."
Look
at Friday's results, Vaccaro said. Although no pro football games were
played, it was a big sports betting day in Las Vegas, with five college
games on the board and Thanksgiving weekend crowds packing local
casinos.
And favorites took a hard fall, going 1-4 against the
spread. Only Wisconsin managed to cover as a favorite, with Texas,
Arizona State, LSU and Colorado faltering. In at least three of those
games, there was heavy betting action on the favorite. Texas closed as
high as a 30-point favorite after opening at 25 1/2.
"So maybe a
book had a bad Sunday, but it makes 40 percent back of what it lost
right there, in one day," Vaccaro said. "That's the way the process
works."
The success of NFL favorites has put some money in the
pockets of recreational gamblers, sometimes called the "betting
public," or "squares," as opposed to professional sports bettors.
Traditionally, the public bets NFL favorites regardless of the line.
The sports books have several factors working in their favor, though:
Don't underestimate the powerful "vigorish," or commission, the books
take on each bet. Gamblers risk $1.10 for each $1 they're trying to
win, and as Vaccaro suggested, the extra 10 cents on the dollar
virtually ensures the house will get the money eventually.
The
favorites' hot streak has also been a bonanza for gamblers who play
"teasers" -- a specialized wager in which the bettor is given extra
points in the spread in exchange for paying a higher vigorish. But that
streak is guaranteed to turn ugly. With the exception of the Barbary
Coast, the Stratosphere and Wynn Las Vegas, casinos on the Strip charge
an exorbitant vig for football teasers. Bet teasers anywhere else on
the Strip (as much of the public does), and you're essentially playing
roulette. Double-zero will get you.
* Sure, the public is still
enamored of favorites, but there's no indication sharp bettors are,
too. "It's been the biggest year in 20 years for favorites -- (about
58) percent when the average is closer to 48 percent," Las Vegas sports
handicapper "Fairway" Jay Ginsbach said. "The underdogs are going to
come back."
They didn't this weekend. NFL favorites were 10-3-1
against the spread heading into Sunday's late game between the Saints
and the Jets. On the money line, favorites were 12-2 counting the
Thanksgiving Day games.
"The public is getting rich," said a
local independent oddsmaker who works as an agent for several offshore
sports books and is tuned in to betting patterns. "The favorites just
don't stop. It's like there's some kind of weird change going on in
sports betting, where the public has information that's just as good as
the house."
